Employment Data Looks Better and Better Nowadays

The current US economic data was mixed, although employment data looks, but rather lag. Last year’s fourth quarter GDP1.4%, although higher than the initial value, but not a sustainable recovery performance. Corporate profits appear gradual downward trend, particularly the sharp decline in the energy sector, aerospace and automotive recession. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing and exports also appears to bear the impact of a strong dollar, the US trade deficit in four years in 2015 to a new high, ISM manufacturing index is now also in the line of 50% or less. Taking into account the above factors, I believe that America’s own economic fundamentals do not support high frequency rate hike, and this judgment has been verified in the latest statement of Yellen.

Under the global financial turmoil, the United States can not stay in September last year to postpone the Fed to raise interest rates is a rare emerging markets turbulence considerations. And the New York Economic Club Yellen speech, also said that China’s economic slowdown and the impact of oil prices, increased uncertainty of the global economy and financial markets, it makes the risks facing the US economy increases, so should the Fed more slowly raising interest rates, monetary policy is also out of spillover considerations.

Although the agreement did not have a clear introduction, but as the author of “under the framework of the G20 global financial coordination of the new achievements,” the article mentioned, the central bank from the recent global initiatives, it seems that the formation of the coordination between global central banks will post steady growth understanding and financial markets. We can see, after the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, lead by the Chinese central bank RRR, pulled the world’s major central banks have been easing the release signal. In addition to outside the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on hold, the ECB cut interest rates three superimposed increase the scale of debt purchased, the Bank of Japan to maintain the negative interest rate increase and emphasized loose, if necessary, the RBA, Bank of Korea, New Zealand, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have expressed the need to maintain a loose policy. The overall direction of global monetary conditions relaxed, especially the United States change posture, slow down the pace of rate hikes, the action has been appealed to the earlier practice of the author of the “new Plaza Accord.”


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